Latest data from the WHO on the W. Africa Ebola outbreak (report of 09-18-14; data therein as of 09-14-14). For data table go here, and for R code generating data and graphs go here.
Reporting issues are likely responsible for the large fluctuations in the raw data, hence the loess smoothing (dark line) for a better approximation of the true rates. See here for a more in depth discussion of this issue.
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Thanks again for the charts. It seems you are the only person on the internet plotting this outbreak, kind of astonishing given the significance.
Would you venture an extrapolation at this point? I read your explanation of the data and your methodology but you fell short of forward guidance. Do you have enough data at this point to venture a prediction of where we will be in say 120 days at the current rate of acceleration?
J.
What’ even more astonishing is that neither the WHO nor the CDC can seem to be bothered to just collate the case and death data into a simple database on a spreadsheet, such that people like me and whoever’s writing the Wikipedia article have to do it.
It’s very easy to predict the case and death rates at given future time points if you assume the infection rates over the last 2-3 months will hold into the future. However, since this is such a huge assumption, I don’t do it. My view, limited as it is, is that behavioral changes and awareness can potentially change rapidly in response to a new (to that region) and highly virulent disease. Whether they actually will or not, is of course another story, very unpredictable.
If the region-wide, per-day infection spread rate of 1.043 held for 120 days into the future, that would bring the region to over 7800 new cases per day. Given even a mortality rate of 53% (I think it’s actually closer to 67% but that’s what they’re saying officially), probably only an intense international effort would be able to handle such a situation.
FYI, WHO keeps moving its data reporting around its site. I’ve recently found updated data – as of 9/6/14 and 9/5/14 – here:
http://apps.who.int/iris/handle/10665/1637/simple-search?location=&query=ebola&rpp=10&sort_by=dc.date.issued_dt&order=DESC&etal=0&submit_search=Update
Note that these reports only include the “big three” hotspot countries, not Senegal or Nigeria.
It is stunning that the number of cases has doubled–from an already high base–in just the last 24 days (as of the 9/6/14 data).
I saw the summary this morning and thought of you. My very first crude calculation was simply if 7 people contracted it from each victim every 14 days, how long would it take for the whole world to get infected? I came up with Super Bowl sunday give or take a week. Obviously non-scientific, merely trying to drive home the point of exponential growth.
Well we certainly have that. Will wait for the next 21 day count before I jump to conclusions but this outbreak is going to be hugely underestimated until it is too late I’m afraid.
Thanks for keeping up on the developments….
I’ve gotten quite fed up with the way the WHO alters their reporting constantly. I’ve had to re-write my data scraper code about five times now. Just put the GD numbers in a spreadsheet and make it publicly available WHO. I’m now hearing reported case and death numbers through popular media before I even see them appear officially at WHO websites.
Agreed. I have seen the data in three places: the link I posted above, and
http://www.who.int/csr/don/archive/year/2014/en/
http://www.afro.who.int/en/clusters-a-programmes/dpc/epidemic-a-pandemic-alert-and-response/outbreak-news.html
Yes, those are the two I’ve used up to now. Thanks for the newer link P.C., I appreciate it.
WHO update with data as of September 7th:
http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/10665/132834/1/roadmapupdate8sept14_eng.pdf?ua=1
Thanks P.C.