Today a new and more extensive WHO W. Africa ebola update was released, including data current as of Sept. 14, four days ago. I’ve therefore compiled new tables, and case and death rates. The new code and graphs are here, and the new data table is here. Liberia-specific graphs are here.
There’s been a slight drop in the transmission rate, based on these data. The daily rate is now estimated at about 1.038 (down from 1.043 a month ago). The 6-12 day rates, which correspond roughly with the estimate of R_zero, the per person rate of infection (depending on the mean infectiousness period, in days), range from 1.25 to 1.57. The midpoint value is 1.41. See here and here for my methodology.
It is almost certain that cases are going unreported however, and it could be many, I don’t know. These estimates are therefore underestimates of the true rate, and hence the severity of the outbreak. And this kind of thing is certainly tragic and not helping the situation.